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China PPI slowed from 8.8% yoy to 8.3% yoy, but still beat expectation of 7.9% yoy. However, the monthly rise of 1.1% mom in PPI was the fastest in five months, driven by surges in oil prices and non-ferrous metals.
CPI accelerated from 0.9% yoy to 1.5% yoy in March, above expectation of 1.2% yoy. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 1.1% yoy, unchanged from February’s reading. Prices of some food like flour, vegetable oil, fresh vegetables and eggs rose and were “affected by the rise in international prices of wheat, corn and soybeans and the domestic [coronavirus] outbreaks”, noted senior NBS statistician Dong Lijuan.
RBNZ, BoC, ECB, UK GDP, US CPI…
Three central banks will meet this week. RBNZ will come first and it’s expected to raise the Official Cash Rate by another 25bps to 1.25%. A 50bps hike cannot be totally ruled out, but RBNZ would more likely wait for the May Monetary Policy Statement to make the case for a bigger move, if needed.
BoC is expected to raise the Overnight Rate for the second straight month, and by a larger amount of 50bps to 1.00%. The central bank should also indicate that more tightening ahead, to “forcefully” press inflation back to target. A question is on when BoC would start quantitative tightening, and shrink the balance sheet. Some indications, or even actions, on the balance sheet could move the markets